Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Depression Newton Forecast Discussion


053 
WTPZ45 KNHC 250234
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Newton Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152022
900 PM MDT Sat Sep 24 2022

A little deep convection has reformed near the center of Newton 
since the last advisory. While it isn't particularly well organized, 
it was enough to get a 2.0 Dvorak classification from TAFB, which 
was the primary basis for the 30 kt initial intensity. The lack of 
persistent or organized deep convection is probably due to a 
combination of factors including a dry surrounding environment 
(700-500 mb 50 to 55 percent RH according to SHIPS diagnostics) and 
moderate wind shear. 

Even though Newton is forecast to move over warmer SSTs during the 
next few days, various global models suggest it could become 
post-tropical sooner than that, and based on current trends that 
could be as soon as tomorrow. The HWRF has a notably different 
forecast, indicating Newton could stick around as a weak tropical 
depression for at least another few days. The NHC forecast is very 
similar to the previous advisory, showing Newton becoming 
post-tropical in about a day and dissipating by day 3.

Newton has turned westward. Low-level winds should steer the 
depression westward overnight, and then southwestward by late Sunday 
or early Monday. Only minor adjustments were made to the official 
track forecast which is based on the track consensus aids HCCA and 
TVCN.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0300Z 19.5N 114.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  25/1200Z 19.4N 115.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  26/0000Z 18.7N 117.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  26/1200Z 17.7N 118.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  27/0000Z 16.6N 120.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  27/1200Z 15.5N 121.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky




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