Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Depression Madeline Forecast Discussion


186 
WTPZ44 KNHC 201443
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Madeline Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142022
900 AM MDT Tue Sep 20 2022

Madeline is close to becoming a post-tropical cyclone, having 
produced little deep convection overnight.  Satellite intensity 
estimates continue to decrease and, based on these and the earlier 
scatterometer data, the initial intensity has been lowered to 30 
kt.  The storm is predicted to become a post-tropical cyclone in 
12 hours or less due to persistent shear, dry air and cool waters.  
It is possible Madeline will produce occasional short-lived bursts 
of convection after it moves away from the cooler ocean waters 
stirred up by Kay.  However, model guidance suggests this 
convective activity will not be enough to redevelop Madeline as a 
tropical system.  The remnant low is expected to open up into a 
trough by the end of the forecast period.

Madeline is moving west at 7 kt.  This general motion is expected 
to continue with a gradual turn to the west-southwest in the 
low-level flow.  The NHC track forecast is slightly south of the 
previous advisory and close to the multi-model consensus aids. 


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/1500Z 21.2N 112.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  21/0000Z 21.4N 113.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  21/1200Z 21.4N 114.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  22/0000Z 21.4N 116.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  22/1200Z 21.3N 117.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  23/0000Z 21.2N 119.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  23/1200Z 21.0N 120.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  24/1200Z 20.8N 124.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  25/1200Z 20.8N 127.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Bucci




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