Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Depression Julia Forecast Discussion


637 
WTPZ43 KNHC 101445
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Julia Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182022
1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 10 2022

Microwave and surface observations indicate the center of Julia went 
inland just before 1200 UTC about 35 miles west of San Salvador.  
Deep convection has weakened somewhat over the center since that 
time, and the whole circulation is becoming stretched by the 
mountainous terrain.  The initial wind speed is lowered to 30 kt, 
assuming some spin down of the winds from friction.

Julia should dissipate by this evening while it continues moving 
west-northwestward over southern Guatemala. No significant changes 
were made to the previous forecast. Regardless, heavy rainfall is 
likely to continue over portions of Central America through today 
and southern Mexico through tomorrow.

Some of the residual moisture and vorticity associated with Julia 
could become absorbed within a broader cyclonic envelope to the 
west, associated with an ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. 
For information on the potential for new development offshore of 
southern Mexico later this week, please see the latest eastern North 
Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook.


Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected across
portions of Central America today. Flash flooding is anticipated
across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico through Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/1500Z 14.1N  90.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 12H  11/0000Z 15.2N  92.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake




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