Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Depression Georgette Forecast Discussion


464 
WTPZ43 KNHC 312042
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Georgette Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082022
200 PM PDT Sun Jul 31 2022

There has been persistent deep convection near the estimated center 
of Georgette for the past several hours, likely due to the 
convective diurnal maximum.  However, a fortuitous ASCAT-B overpass 
that occurred at 1844 UTC over the cyclone indicates that the system 
has weakened into a 30 kt tropical depression.  Thus, the pulsing 
nature of the convection associated with the cyclone over the past 
day or so has appeared to have taken its toll.

Georgette has been moving slowly west-southwestward today, or 255/4 
kt, to the south of a weak mid-tropospheric ridge.  There is no 
change to the track reasoning, and model guidance remains in 
generally good agreement that the portion of the ridge to the north 
of the cyclone should weaken through early this week as Hurricane 
Frank passes well to the north.  As a result, Georgette should 
continue to move slowly west or west-southwest through tonight and 
begin drifting northward early this week toward the temporary 
weakness in the ridge carved out by Frank.  By mid-week, the ridge 
is forecast to re-strengthen, forcing the cyclone on a more westward 
track.  The latest NHC forecast track is near the previous one, and 
is close to the TVCE consensus.

Strong easterly shear caused by the outflow from the large 
circulation of Frank to the northeast of Georgette should prevent 
deep convection from persisting near the center of the cyclone long 
enough to support much reintensification. By late in the forecast 
period, the system is forecast to reach cooler waters and become 
surrounded by a drier airmass. This should cause further weakening, 
and Georgette is expected to become a remnant low by day 5, if not 
sooner. The official NHC intensity forecast no longer shows that 
Georgette will restrengthen into a tropical storm. However, it is 
possible some minor fluctuations in intensity could occur through 
midweek.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/2100Z 12.7N 130.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  01/0600Z 12.8N 130.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  01/1800Z 13.0N 130.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  02/0600Z 13.6N 130.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  02/1800Z 14.4N 130.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  03/0600Z 15.2N 130.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  03/1800Z 15.9N 130.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  04/1800Z 16.2N 132.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  05/1800Z 15.5N 136.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Latto




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