Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Depression Georgette Forecast Discussion


514 
WTPZ43 KNHC 031435
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Georgette Discussion Number  29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082022
800 AM PDT Wed Aug 03 2022

Georgette is producing minimal deep convection this morning with 
very little organization. Based on its current lack of organization, 
it could become post-tropical at almost any time. The intitial 
intensity of 30 kt is based primarily on continuity, though it does 
fall in the range between the latest TAFB Final-T and Current 
Intensity estimates. Various dynamical models suggest the cyclone 
will weaken and become post tropical within a day, which makes sense 
given it is moving into a drier, more stable region. Once Georgette 
becomes post-tropical, it should continue to slowly spin down and 
ultimately open into a trough within about 60 h. No changes of note 
were made to the official intensity forecast.

The initial motion is estimated at 020/9kt, a little faster than 
previously forecast. A low-level ridge is expected to build to the 
northeast of Georgette today, which should cause the cyclone or its 
remnants to turn gradually westward over the next day and a half. 
The NHC track forecast has been shifted to the north, primarily due 
to Georgette's recent faster north-northeastward motion.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/1500Z 16.8N 129.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  04/0000Z 17.5N 129.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  04/1200Z 18.2N 130.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  05/0000Z 18.6N 132.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  05/1200Z 18.4N 134.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky




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