Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Depression Celia Wind Speed Probabilities


834 
FOPZ13 KNHC 190836
PWSEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  11       
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032022               
0900 UTC SUN JUN 19 2022                                            

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR   
LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.                               

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

10N 105W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)

15N 105W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  14(15)  11(26)
15N 105W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
15N 105W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)

MANZANILLO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

10N 100W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)

15N 100W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)

15N 110W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)

ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    



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