Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Depression Celia Wind Speed Probabilities


000
FOPZ13 KNHC 210253
PWSEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  18       
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032022               
0300 UTC TUE JUN 21 2022                                            

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR   
LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)

SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)

10N 105W       34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

15N 105W       34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)  24(27)  29(56)   2(58)   X(58)
15N 105W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  16(20)   X(20)   X(20)
15N 105W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

MANZANILLO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)

L CARDENAS     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

ZIHUATANEJO    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

15N 100W       34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

15N 110W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)  25(37)   2(39)
15N 110W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   1(13)
15N 110W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)

20N 110W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  16(17)  10(27)
20N 110W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)
20N 110W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)

ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  30(31)  19(50)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  12(20)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)

ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  21(25)
ISLA CLARION   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
ISLA CLARION   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)

15N 115W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)

20N 115W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  13(15)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BUCCI/BLAKE                                              



Source link