Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Depression Celia Forecast Discussion


289 
WTPZ43 KNHC 192044
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Celia Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032022
400 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022

Celia appears to be holding its own this afternoon. While convection 
has waned as it typically does approaching the diurnal minimum over 
the ocean, there remain a few convective clusters located near the 
depression's estimated low-level center. While scatterometer imagery 
largely missed Celia's circulation to the west, it did show that 
there were 25-30 kt northerly wind-retrievals in the gap wind flow 
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. These somewhat higher winds are not yet 
related to Celia's wind field, but will likely play some role in 
broadening the overall cyclonic envelope of the system. Satellite 
estimates from SAB and TAFB remain unchanged from this morning, and 
so the current intensity remains 25 kt.

The depression is losing some latitude while it has sped up some, 
with its current motion estimated at 260/9 kt. A general west- 
southwestward motion is expected to continue over the next day or so 
because of northward deep-layer ridging in addition to the 
northerly gap winds contributing to Celia's steering. Later this 
week, a gradual rightward turn to the west-northwest is anticipated 
due to the cyclone rounding the southwest side of the deep-layer 
ridging. Once again the track guidance has shifted a bit south this 
cycle, and the NHC track is also shifted in that direction, which 
lies close to the multi-model consensus aids.

There are some interesting variations in the intensity guidance this 
afternoon. For example, the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance 
disagree on how quickly the northeasterly shear over Celia will 
subside over the next several days. The ECMWF notably now shows the 
shear dropping under 20 kt as soon as 18 hours from now and 
remaining under that value for the remainder of the forecast period. 
The GFS shear forecast is a good 5-10 kt higher for the next 48 
hours. An inspection of the raw model fields, using simulated 
IR-Brightness temperature, reveals that the GFS struggles to produce 
deep convection near Celia over that time span, while the ECMWF 
shows more widespread convection near Celia's center. This 
convection may result in more upper-level outflow mitigating the 
easterly shear over the cyclone. The ECMWF has also been handling 
the convective structure with Celia better today, so some credence 
is given towards its overall solution. The NHC intensity forecast 
now shows a bit more intensification after 24 hours, and now makes 
Celia a hurricane by 96 hours, which is faster than the previous 
forecast. This is more in line with the IVCN consensus, but remains 
lower than some of the more bullish guidance (HWRF, HMON, 
ECMWF-SHIPS).


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/2100Z 12.7N  93.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  20/0600Z 12.1N  94.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  20/1800Z 11.5N  96.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  21/0600Z 11.6N  98.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  21/1800Z 12.1N 100.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  22/0600Z 12.5N 102.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  22/1800Z 13.0N 103.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  23/1800Z 14.7N 106.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  24/1800Z 16.3N 108.6W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin




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