Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Depression Celia Forecast Discussion


639 
WTPZ43 KNHC 191436
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Celia Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032022
1000 AM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022

Similar to yesterday, a widespread area of deep convection has 
formed along and south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, likely in 
association with an ongoing gap wind event. There has also been a 
few more clusters of deep convection developing just west of Celia's 
estimated low-level center. Despite this activity, none of it is 
especially well-organized and remains primarily down-shear of 
Celia's vortex. However, it is enough coverage for now to keep Celia 
as a classifiable tropical cyclone. The initial intensity remains 25 
kt this advisory, favoring the lower SAB Dvorak classification given 
the lackluster winds found with overnight scatterometer and a ship 
report near the center.

Celia's motion continues off to the west, estimated at 265/7 kt. The 
track guidance is in fairly good agreement that a west-southwest 
motion will continue for the next 36 h as Celia is steered by a 
deep-level ridge to the north supplemented by low-level northerly 
flow from a gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Afterwards, a 
turn to the west and west-northwest is anticipated as Celia becomes 
positioned on the southwest side of the deep-layer ridging. The NHC 
track forecast was nudged slightly south again from the prior one 
following a southward adjustment in the latest consensus aids (HCCA, 
TVCE).

Moderate to strong east-northeasterly vertical wind shear over the 
next 24-36 hours still appears likely to keep Celia in check, and 
the system is forecast to remain a depression during that time. 
Afterwards, both the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance indicates 
this shear should gradual subside as the system moves over 28-29 C 
sea-surface temperatures. The majority of the intensity guidance 
responds to this environment by showing intensification, and the 
latest NHC intensity forecast was nudged upward just a bit after 36 
hours. This forecast is a blend between the lower HCCA and higher 
IVCN consensus aids, and is quite close to the most recent COAMPS-TC 
(CTCI) forecast in 120 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/1500Z 12.8N  92.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  20/0000Z 12.4N  93.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  20/1200Z 11.8N  95.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  21/0000Z 11.7N  97.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  21/1200Z 12.0N  99.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  22/0000Z 12.4N 101.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  22/1200Z 12.9N 102.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  23/1200Z 14.5N 106.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  24/1200Z 16.0N 108.4W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin




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