Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Depression Celia Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ43 KNHC 180834
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Celia Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032022
400 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022

Celia is currently comprised of a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds 
with the nearest convection about 60 n mi west-northwest of the 
center.  Various satellite intensity estimates are between 30-45 
kt, but there was no scatterometer data to help show the actual 
intensity of the system.  Given the uncertainty, the initial 
intensity remains 30 kt.

The cyclone is now moving a little faster toward the northwest with 
an initial motion of 325/4.  A building mid- to upper-level ridge 
to the north of Celia should cause a turn to the west or west- 
southwest during the next 12-24 h, and a general westward motion 
at a faster forward speed is likely to continue through the 
remainder of the forecast period.  The new forecast track lies near 
the various consensus models and is changed little from the 
previous forecast.

Celia is in an area of strong easterly vertical wind shear, and the 
dynamical models forecast the shear to persist for at least the 
next 48-72 h.  This is likely to prevent intensification during 
this time, and it is possible that the cyclone could degenerate to 
a remnant low during the next day or two.  After that time, the 
shear is forecast to gradually diminish, and this should allow the 
system to slowly intensify.  The new intensity forecast has only 
minor adjustments from the previous forecast.

Key Messages:

1. Areas of heavy rainfall are expected north of Celia's track
across portions of far southern Mexico, Guatemala and El Salvador
through Sunday. This rainfall may cause some instances of flash
flooding and mudslides across the region.

2. Interests along the coasts of El Salvador, Honduras, and
southeastern Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of this 
system, although the chances of direct wind impacts are decreasing.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0900Z 12.6N  89.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  18/1800Z 12.7N  90.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  19/0600Z 12.5N  91.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  19/1800Z 12.2N  92.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  20/0600Z 11.9N  93.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  20/1800Z 12.0N  95.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  21/0600Z 12.4N  97.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  22/0600Z 13.5N 102.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  23/0600Z 14.5N 106.0W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven



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