Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Depression Celia Forecast Discussion


109 
WTPZ43 KNHC 281448
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Celia Discussion Number  48
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032022
800 AM PDT Tue Jun 28 2022

The slow but steady decay of Celia has continued this morning. The 
coldest cloud tops near the center of Celia have warmed to around 
-40 deg C, a sign that it is no longer producing organized deep 
convection. The depression is moving over water colder than 22 deg 
C, so further decay is inevitable. It is likely that Celia will 
become a post-tropical remnant low later today.

The estimated intensity remains 30 kt for this advisory. Weakening 
is likely during the next few days while Celia is steered 
west-northwestward by a ridge extending southwest from the 
southwestern United States. Various dynamical models indicate that 
Celia will dissipate into a trough in about 2-3 days. No changes of 
note were made to the NHC forecast, which is near the multi-model 
consensus for both track and intensity.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/1500Z 22.3N 120.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  29/0000Z 23.0N 121.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  29/1200Z 23.7N 123.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  30/0000Z 24.2N 125.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  30/1200Z 24.6N 126.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky




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