Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Depression Celia Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ43 KNHC 210253
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Celia Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032022
1000 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

The depression has become better organized based on geostationary 
and microwave satellite imagery.  The center is embedded in the 
eastern side of a growing area of deep convection.  However, 
subjective satellite estimates still support an intensity at 30 kt 
and therefore, the initial intensity is set to that value.

Despite moderate east-northeasterly shear, the depression is 
expected to gradually re-strengthen in the next day or so.  Celia 
will likely continue to intensify in the following few days, in part 
due to the cyclone moving over warm waters in a low-or-moderate 
shear environment.  At the end of the forecast period, 
intensification will likely halt as the storm encounters cooler 
waters.  The official intensity forecast is very similar to the 
previous one and represents a compromise between the higher 
dynamical hurricane models and lower global model intensities.

Celia continues westward (270/11 kt) due to the steering flow of a 
mid-level ridge to its north, and this motion should persist for 
another day or so.  The system is expected to turn west-northwest 
and eventually northwestward as it rounds the southwest side of the 
ridge.  There is a fair bit of model disagreement this cycle in both 
cross-track and along-track storm positions.  This is possibly due 
to a wide variety of forecast model tropical cyclone vortex depths 
which experience very different environmental steering flows.  The 
NHC track forecast lies to the north of the consensus aids, a little 
closer to the global models, and is slightly faster than the 
previous forecast.  The large spread in model guidance makes this 
track forecast more uncertain than average.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0300Z 11.9N  97.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  21/1200Z 12.1N  99.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  22/0000Z 12.5N 101.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  22/1200Z 13.2N 103.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  23/0000Z 13.9N 104.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  23/1200Z 14.9N 106.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  24/0000Z 15.7N 107.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  25/0000Z 17.3N 110.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  26/0000Z 18.5N 113.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Blake



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