Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Depression Celia Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ43 KNHC 202036
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Celia Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032022
400 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

Celia remains a sheared tropical cyclone south of southern Mexico 
with deep convection confined to the west of the center due to about 
20 kt of east-northeasterly shear. Even though the center is still 
exposed, deep convection has increased a little today and banding 
features are becoming a little better established on the system's 
south and west sides. Satellite intensity estimates range from 25 to 
37 kt, and the initial wind speed is nudged up to 30 kt based on 
that data. Unfortunately, ASCAT missed the system this afternoon.

After moving south of due west for the past 18-24 hours, Celia has 
now turned westward and picked up speed. The latest initial motion 
estimate is 275/11 kt. Celia is expected to continue westward for 
the next couple of days as it remains steered by a mid-level ridge 
to its north. After that time, a slightly slower west-northwest 
motion is expected as it moves on the southwest side of the ridge.  
Although the models generally agree on the large-scale steering 
pattern, there is a fair amount of spread in forward speed and 
direction. The NHC track forecast is largely an update of the 
previous one and still lies to the north of the consensus models, 
leaning toward the GFS and ECMWF models. 

The ongoing east-northeasterly shear is expected to persist for
another day, so strengthening will likely be limited in the short
term. However, the shear is expected to lessen after that time, and
given the moist airmass and high SSTs, steady strengthening seems
likely between 24 and 96 hours. By the end of the forecast period,
Celia will likely be moving over cooler SSTs, which should end the
strengthening trend. The NHC intensity forecast shows a slightly
higher peak than the previous one and is in best agreement with the
IVCN model.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/2100Z 12.0N  96.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  21/0600Z 12.1N  98.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  21/1800Z 12.4N 100.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  22/0600Z 12.9N 101.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  22/1800Z 13.4N 103.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  23/0600Z 14.4N 105.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  23/1800Z 15.4N 106.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  24/1800Z 17.1N 109.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  25/1800Z 18.3N 111.9W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



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