Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 971

   Mesoscale Discussion 0971
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0750 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

   Areas affected...Mid Mississippi Valley into central Kentucky/Middle
   Tennessee

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 314...

   Valid 261250Z - 261445Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 314 continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe risk -- including a couple of tornadoes along with
   damaging wind gusts and hail -- continues across Tornado Watch 314. 
   Risk will eventually spread east of this watch, likely warranting
   downstream WW issuance into central Kentucky and Middle Tennessee,
   and potentially southern Indiana.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows that convection has evolved
   into a bowing MCS across southeastern Missouri, and now moving
   across the Mississippi Valley, with embedded small-scale
   circulations embedded therein.  As such, risk for a couple of
   tornadoes continues, along with more widespread potential for
   damaging winds/hail.

   Downstream from the ongoing convection, ample instability appears to
   extend eastward as far as central Kentucky and Middle Tennessee. 
   Given the well-organized nature of this MCS -- including the
   MCV/mesolow apparent in southeastern Missouri -- expect that storms
   will remain organized as they shift eastward, accompanied by
   continued severe risk over the next few hours at least.  While the
   watch currently runs through 26/15Z, risk likely continuing beyond
   this time/downstream from the eastern edge of the watch will likely
   require new WW issuance in the 14Z to 1430Z time frame.

   ..Goss.. 05/26/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

   LAT...LON   35968991 36728934 37418966 37688948 38078722 38178558
               36268514 35518585 35718813 35968991