Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 966

   Mesoscale Discussion 0966
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0856 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026

   Areas affected...Southwest South Dakota into northwest Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 269...

   Valid 030156Z - 030400Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 269
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A threat for severe hail and wind will likely persist for
   the next hour or two, but a gradual weakening trend is anticipated
   beyond 04 UTC.

   DISCUSSION...A robust convective band has been slowly moving
   eastward across southwest SD with several intense updraft pulses
   embedded within the line per recent MRMS VIL and GOES IR imagery.
   Given residual buoyancy analyzed immediately downstream of this band
   in latest mesoanalysis estimates, some severe hail/wind threat may
   linger for the next hour or so - especially on the southern flank of
   the line where low-level convergence should increase in response to
   a strengthening nocturnal jet. 

   However, this band will continue to push into the cold pool of a
   preceding MCV/squall line (currently over central SD) where
   temperatures are in the mid to upper 60s. The coming onset of
   nocturnal cooling should reduce near-surface temperatures further
   and increase inhibition. Diminishing deep-layer shear with eastward
   extent will also promote a higher chance for outflow-dominant
   convection and a gradual weakening trend. Based on latest forecast
   guidance, the severe threat should substantially diminish after
   approximately 04 UTC.

   ..Moore.. 06/03/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...

   LAT...LON   42840350 43670254 43800238 43910205 44050098 43780069
               43470069 43170076 42910096 42760123 42520185 42460230
               42390277 42410313 42470341 42640352 42840350 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN