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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 961

Mesoscale Discussion 961
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0961
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0822 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

   Areas affected...Northwest Kansas into southern Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 310...

   Valid 260122Z - 260315Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 310

   SUMMARY...The threat for severe hail and wind continues across
   portions of northwest Kansas into southern Nebraska. Thunderstorm
   coverage and intensity may increase in the next couple of hours
   based on recent observed trends and latest numerical guidance.

   DISCUSSION...Recent GOES water-vapor and visible imagery continue to
   show signs of persistent, broadscale ascent within the left-exit
   region of the primary mid-level jet that is nosing into
   western/central OK. This persistent ascent has resulted in scattered
   thunderstorm development along a cold front across southwest
   NE/northwest KS over the past hour. IR imagery and MRMS data have
   shown periodic intensification of this activity, and while buoyancy
   continues to slowly increase amid northward moisture return, ongoing
   thunderstorms across north-central KS may limit addition moisture
   return and modulate further destabilization. The expectation for the
   next couple of hours is for continued periodic intensification of
   this activity with additional development along the front possible.
   Thunderstorm clusters should propagate to the east/northeast over
   the next few hours with an attendant risk of large hail and severe
   winds. This idea is supported by recent HRRR solutions and derived
   hazard probability forecasts, which show hail and wind potential
   increasing downstream through at least 03 UTC.

   ..Moore.. 05/26/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   39170029 39590046 39890076 40030106 40370103 40750048
               40949980 40989925 40959873 40869839 40589822 40279838
               40019872 39589935 39539947 39229969 39169995 39170029 

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