Mesoscale Discussion 0951 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0909 PM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026 Areas affected...Central Arkansas to far northwest Mississippi Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 261...263... Valid 020209Z - 020415Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 261, 263 continues. SUMMARY...A severe wind/hail threat will likely persist for the next hour or so across central to eastern Arkansas and far northwest Mississippi. WW 263 has been expanded in space and extended time to account for this potential. DISCUSSION...A 48 knot wind gusts was recently reported at KLIT (Little Rock, AR) associated with thunderstorms that developed along the outflow boundary of prior convection. While this activity itself has become outflow dominant, GOES IR imagery continues to show strong updraft pulses and percolated convection is noted further south within the very buoyant warm sector. Consequently, it seems plausible that some wind (and perhaps localized hail) threat should persist across central AR over the next hour or so before this cluster substantially weakens. Further east, new convection continues to develop along and ahead of a migratory outflow boundary across the Memphis, TN region. Despite the onset of nocturnal cooling, very moist boundary-layer conditions will modulate the degree of low-level stabilization for the next few hours, allowing for additional thunderstorm development across the region. Based on MRMS trends, this convection may periodically intensify to severe limits and could pose a localized hail/wind threat. Across both regions, the outflow-dominant nature of the convection and limited deep-layer wind shear should limit the duration of the severe threat heading into the late overnight hours, but spatial expansions and a temporal extension of WW 263 were made to address the short-term threat. ..Moore.. 06/02/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK... LAT...LON 34729360 34719210 34779147 34959107 35389079 35519054 35509024 35379000 35158976 34628974 34398985 34139025 33949073 33839136 33839208 33939271 34029315 34169349 34349365 34589371 34729360 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Source link