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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 944

Mesoscale Discussion 944
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0944
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0849 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

   Areas affected...Eastern Missouri and far western Illinois

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 302...

   Valid 250149Z - 250315Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 302

   SUMMARY...A severe hail/wind threat may persist for another hour or
   two across eastern Missouri and far western Illinois as a line of
   thunderstorms approaches the Missouri River.

   DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, convective intensity has largely
   waned across much of WW 302 - mainly due to an acceleration of an
   undercutting outflow boundary/cold pool expansion. The anticipated
   upscale growth into a more linear cluster does not appear to be
   materializing as expected; however, convective development continues
   along an eastward migrating cold front, including embedded
   supercells based on KLSX imagery. Nearly straight hodographs above 1
   km (as sampled by the KLSX VWP) with deep-layer shear vectors
   somewhat orthogonal to the front will continue to promote
   line-embedded supercells as this activity begins to propagate
   east/southeast along a diffuse buoyancy gradient (which is roughly
   situated along the MO river). The severe threat for much of WW 302
   will continue to diminish amid the onset of nocturnal cooling and
   further cold pool expansion to the north of the St. Louis area, but
   a more focused severe threat may persist downstream for the next
   hour or so with an attendant risk of large hail and damaging winds.

   ..Moore.. 05/25/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   38279191 38599123 38909060 38889020 38588975 38198943
               37818946 37548997 37449040 37489084 37669130 37959184
               38089203 38279191 

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