Mesoscale Discussion 0944
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0530 PM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026
Areas affected...portions of western Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 012230Z - 020000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon.
Although marginally severe hail is possible, strong, gusty
thunderstorm winds are the main threat. A watch is currently not
expected for this activity.
DISCUSSION...Surface observations indicate the presence of a diffuse
northwest-to-southeast oriented moisture gradient across northwest
Oklahoma and southwest Kansas. To the east of this boundary, surface
dewpoints in the upper-60Fs to low-70Fs exist, with dewpoints to the
west of the boundary in the low-50Fs.
Current visible satellite imagery shows this diffuse boundary to be
a favorable zone for cumulus development this afternoon, likely
owing to slightly augmented vertical boundary-layer circulations
owing to the presence of the moisture/density gradient. As
large-scale ascent increases from the west this afternoon coincident
with peak diurnal mixing (vertical boundary-layer circulations at
their greatest), surface-based parcels may be able to reach their
LFCs and isolated thunderstorms will be possible.
The overall thermodynamic environment is quite unstable with MLCAPE
in excess of 2000-3000 J/kg on the east side of the boundary.
Kinematically, speaking, however, deep-layer shear remains rather
weak (generally at or below 30 knots). Thus, any thunderstorm
development this afternoon should be pulsey/cellular in nature and
not prone to longevity. Marginally severe hail is possible with the
strongest updraft cores, but the main threat should be strong gusty
thunderstorm outflows with any collapsing updraft core.
A watch is currently not expected for this activity. A more
appreciable severe threat may evolve later this evening into the
overnight hours as a mesoscale convective system moves out of the
High Plains and approaches the region.
..Marsh/Guyer.. 06/01/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...
LAT...LON 35809949 36719995 37069991 37289950 37039875 36369810
35799756 35389744 35069754 34939791 35019846 35809949
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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