Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 940

   Mesoscale Discussion 0940
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0539 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

   Areas affected...Eastern Oklahoma...Western Arkansas...Central and
   Northeast Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 303...

   Valid 242239Z - 250045Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 303
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A threat for large hail and wind damage is expected to
   increase in coverage over the next couple of hours from northeast
   Texas into southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas.

   DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar imagery from Fort Worth
   shows scattered strong to severe thunderstorms located in and around
   the Dallas/Fort Worth Metro extending northward into southern
   Oklahoma. Short-term model forecasts suggest that convective
   coverage will increase, as the complex moves northeastward across
   western parts of the Ark-La-Tex early this evening. Relatively
   straight hodographs will be favorable for storm splits. The airmass
   is extremely unstable with surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s
   F, and MLCAPE estimated by the RAP in the 4500 to 6000 J/kg range. 
   In addition, the latest WSR-88D VWP at Fort Worth has 0-6 km shear
   near 50 knots. This, combined with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5
   C/km, estimated by the RAP, will be favorable for supercells with
   large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be
   possible with the strongest of storms. Wind damage will also be
   likely with supercells, and organized intense multicells.

   ..Broyles.. 05/24/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   35179645 36089515 36179405 35979344 35489310 34459318
               33089338 31789432 30909676 30719759 30809825 31059850
               31529854 32399805 35179645