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| Mesoscale Discussion 929 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 0929
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1157 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024
Areas affected...northern and central Missouri...west-central
Illinois
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 241657Z - 241900Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Widely scattered storm development is forecast this
afternoon coincident with an increasing risk for severe weather.
Large to very large hail is possible (1-2.5 inches in diameter),
strong/locally damaging to severe gusts (55-70 mph), and possibly a
couple of tornadoes.
DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows a swelling cumulus
field across far eastern KS and northwest/western MO ahead of a cold
front gradually pushing east across the lower MO Valley. A morning
severe MCS --currently approaching Lake Michigan-- has resulted in
an outflow boundary becoming draped from central IL westward into
northeast MO and arcing northwestward into far south-central IA.
South-southwesterly low-level flow will advect higher theta-e as the
airmass destabilizes gradually from southwest to east-northeast
across northeast MO and west-central IL.
Forecast soundings for early this afternoon show a very unstable
airmass (3500 J/kg MLCAPE) across northern/central MO south of the
outflow boundary. Effective shear around 30 kt will support
organized storms, including supercells and severe multicells
(especially once additional storms develop and congeal their
outflows). The hail risk will be greatest with any supercell that
develops given 8.0 deg C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates and large
buoyancy. If the outflow boundary and air immediately on the cool
side can modify appreciably over the next few hours, it is possible
a tornado threat develops with storms that can favorably interact
with the zone of augmented low-level shear.
..Smith/Guyer.. 05/24/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...
LAT...LON 40049403 40439299 40569103 40189029 39609006 39029019
38509115 38559270 38749395 38979432 39369437 40049403
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