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| Mesoscale Discussion 834 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 0834 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Areas affected...Southeast Florida Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 258... Valid 191935Z - 192130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 258 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for severe hail and damaging winds is gradually spreading southward along the southeastern Florida coast. Areas that have not yet seen thunderstorm activity should see the severe threat increase in the coming hours. DISCUSSION...Latest imagery from KMLB and surface observations show an outflow boundary pushing southward along the southeastern FL coast. This outflow continues to initiate, and quickly undercut, convection as storms move east off shore. Despite the undercutting nature of the front, splitting supercells have been observed given favorable elongated hodographs with severe hail reported over the past hour or so. New convection (including the potential for splitting supercells) should continue to develop along the boundary as it migrates south where temperatures in the low to mid 90s are supporting SBCAPE in excess of 4000 J/kg (per recent RAP mesoanalyses). Further south, a few attempts at convective initiation are noted along a sea breeze boundary draped from roughly Fort Lauderdale to Homestead, FL. Sustained convection may initiate after a few more attempts within the next 1-2 hours, but the exact timing and coverage of storms is uncertain given weaker forcing for ascent along this boundary. Regardless, the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms (with an attendant hail/wind threat) should continue, if not increase, across much of Watch 258 given improving thermodynamic conditions. ..Moore.. 05/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB... LAT...LON 26128002 25738010 25508017 25298046 25288059 25338072 25518083 25678085 25838078 25978069 26148069 26328073 26458082 26568094 26868097 27128084 27268052 27368034 27328016 27238005 27098002 26617996 26128002 |
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