Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 824

   Mesoscale Discussion 0824
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1144 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

   Areas affected...Northeast MS into northern AL and southern middle
   TN

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 181644Z - 181845Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated hail and damaging gusts may accompany storms this
   afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Convection associated with a compact midlevel low
   (which is centered near the TN/AR/MS border) is gradually
   intensifying late this morning from northeast MS into northern AL
   and southern middle TN. Some continued increase in storm coverage
   and intensity may continue into this afternoon, within a moist and
   uncapped environment (with MLCAPE increasing to near/above 1000
   J/kg). This region is on the northern periphery of stronger flow
   aloft, but effective shear of 25-35 kt could occasionally support
   some modestly organized storm structures through the afternoon.
   Isolated hail could accompany any storms that remain semi-discrete,
   while a bowing segment or two could evolve with a threat of isolated
   damaging gusts as storms spread eastward across northern AL and
   southern middle TN.

   ..Dean/Hart.. 05/18/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

   LAT...LON   33459003 33988863 34528811 35538746 35468655 35418594
               34968580 33888598 33298688 32898776 32698850 32658914
               32878966 33459003