Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 497

   Mesoscale Discussion 0497
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1158 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

   Areas affected...portions of southwestern Texas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 151...

   Valid 200458Z - 200630Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 151 continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 151. QLCS
   tornadoes are possible, and a swath of severe winds is also
   possible. A few gusts could exceed 75 mph.

   DISCUSSION...A progressive linear segment, embedded within a broader
   persistent elongated convective system (PECS), continues to rapidly
   track eastward toward a moderately unstable airmass (characterized
   by 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE). This segment is showing both QLCS
   circulations, and bowing segments with a pronounced rear-inflow jet
   (evident via cross-sectional analysis of KSJT radar data). In
   addition to favorable buoyancy, stronger mid-level flow (and
   associated 60+ kt deep-layer shear vectors) are oriented slightly
   more orthogonal to the line segment compared to northern parts of
   the PECS. As this segment progresses into the 45-55 kt low-level
   jet, bowing segments and mesovortices should persist with both a
   tornado and severe gust threat. Some of the latest runs of
   Warn-on-Forecast output suggest that a focused severe wind swath may
   occur with this segment, and a couple of 75+ mph gusts cannot be
   ruled out.

   ..Squitieri.. 04/20/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   30540105 31280075 31630008 31539911 31119870 30529898
               30239970 30290053 30540105 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN