Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 283

   Mesoscale Discussion 0283
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0351 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025

   Areas affected...North-central/northeast Kansas...southeast
   Nebraska...far southwest Iowa...far Northwest Missouri

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 292051Z - 292245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered storms may develop in the
   next 1-3 hours. Large hail and damaging winds would be the primary
   threats.

   DISCUSSION...Tied to a lead shortwave trough in the central Plains,
   cumulus have been deepening along a dryline in central Kansas.
   Despite somewhat limited moisture (dewpoints in the upper 50s F),
   surface heating and forcing from the trough may promote storm
   initiation within the next 1-3 hours. Steep mid-level lapse rates
   and 40-45 kts of effective shear orthogonal to the dryline would
   promote discrete storms capable of large hail and strong/damaging
   winds. Low-level hodograph curvature is sufficient for some
   low-level rotation and potentially a brief tornado, but a generally
   dry boundary layer will likely limit that threat.

   ..Wendt/Smith.. 03/29/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

   LAT...LON   38509735 39569767 40109759 40729641 40819596 40659558
               40049532 39459533 38509735 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN