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| Mesoscale Discussion 248 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 0248 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0524 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Areas affected...portions of the lower Ohio River Valley Concerning...Tornado Watch 58... Valid 192224Z - 200030Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 58 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are beginning to develop across southeast Illinois into western Kentucky. These storms are expected to intensify and pose a severe threat as they move eastward across the lower Ohio River Valley over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Very gradually deepening convection, cooling cloud-top temperatures, and occasional lightning flashes have been noted over the past 30-60 minutes across the lower OH River Valley. Despite the slow convective evolution thus far, a combination of steadily improving low-level moisture (in the form of mid 50s dewpoints) and increasing deep-layer ascent within the left-exit region of the mid-level jet should lead to a gradual increase in storm coverage over the next 1-2 hours across southern IN and western KY. Buoyancy within the narrow warm sector will remain fairly meager (around 500 J/kg MLCAPE), but low to mid-level winds have been increasing over the past hour with the approach of the mid-level jet, which is bolstering low to mid-level wind shear per regional VWPs. This favorable kinematic profile should compensate for the limited buoyancy and support organized convection downstream from where cells are currently developing. Given nearly 300 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH and 50-60 knot flow sampled within the lowest 1-2 km, severe gusts and tornadoes should remain the primary hazard. ..Moore.. 03/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH... LAT...LON 36858879 37378858 38198811 38398792 38508771 38588640 38528602 38358581 37938585 37668601 37368625 37138646 37058674 36698840 36728869 36788878 36858879 |
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