Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1141

   Mesoscale Discussion 1141
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0217 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

   Areas affected...portions of Virginia...far southern
   Pennsylvania...eastern Maryland

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 141917Z - 142115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm clusters will move eastward with damaging
   wind potential into the afternoon/evening.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity across the Shenandoah Valley and
   Blue Ridge Mountains will increase in coverage and intensity as they
   shift eastward into the more favorable air mass across
   central/eastern Virginia this afternoon. Additional thunderstorm
   development is likely downstream of the ongoing activity, with
   several areas of deepening cumulus noted in visible satellite.
   Mostly sunny skies through the morning has allowed for strong
   daytime heating and warming, with temperatures warming into the mid
   90s. Higher theta-e air is advecting northward, with around
   1000-2000 J/kg across southern Virginia. Steep low-level lapse rates
   are noted in SPC Mesoanalysis (7-8 C/km) and in the 18z RAOB from
   IAD. Though deep layer shear is marginal (around 20-30 kts), very
   warm and unstable conditions amid steep low to mid level lapse rates
   will support potential for water laden downdrafts and severe winds.
   A watch will likely be needed to cover this potential this
   afternoon.

   ..Thornton/Mosier.. 06/14/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

   LAT...LON   37138079 38198017 39397896 40127747 39997643 39767636
               38557680 37327783 36827815 36537946 36688084 36838089
               37138079 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN