Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1134

   Mesoscale Discussion 1134
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0402 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024

   Areas affected...central and eastern South Dakota into far western
   Minnesota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 022102Z - 022300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Storm development is forecast to occur in the next 1 to 2
   hours across central and into eastern South Dakota.  New WW issuance
   may be required.

   DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery hints at an increase
   in the cu field across parts of southern and eastern South Dakota,
   south to the Nebraska/South Dakota border.  This is in line with
   HRRR output, with recent runs consistent in depicting storm
   development across this area by 02/22Z to 03/23Z, with the
   moderately unstable (2000 to 3000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE) environment
   observed across this area.  While not excessively strong, flow aloft
   does veer/increase with height across the area, providing shear
   sufficient for organized/rotating storms.  As such, expect potential
   for very large hail and locally damaging wind gusts to evolve. 
   Assuming development occurs as expected areally/temporally, new WW
   may be needed in the next hour or so.

   ..Goss.. 06/02/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...

   LAT...LON   45929695 45949606 45319538 43599650 42980000 43570119
               44540154 45289962 45929695