Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1111

   Mesoscale Discussion 1111
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0539 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

   Areas affected...Far Western Texas into Southeastern New Mexico

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 122239Z - 130045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will intermittently reach severe criteria
   before diminishing into the evening as the boundary layer
   stabilizes. Isolated occurrences of hail and damaging wind gusts are
   possible, though no watch is expected at this time.

   DISCUSSION...Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms have developed
   across far West Texas into far southeastern New Mexico, with MUCAPE
   exceeding 2000-3000 J/kg across much of the area. However, a dearth
   of deep-layer shear will continue to limit overall storm
   organization and severe potential. Isolated occurrences of hail and
   damaging winds are still possible, but the pulse nature of the
   convection and expectation to decrease in intensity as the boundary
   layer stabilizes precludes any watch issuance at this time.

   ..Halbert/Gleason.. 06/12/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   29360379 30640419 32000510 32290589 32630627 33110625
               33360557 33290468 32580369 31790287 31300249 30890225
               30110227 29790262 29530287 29390312 29330340 29360379 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN