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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1111

Mesoscale Discussion 1111
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1111
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0208 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024

   Areas affected...northeast Colorado...eastern Wyoming...Southwest
   South Dakota...western Nebraska...and far northwest Kansas.

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 011908Z - 012045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are
   possible this afternoon/evening.

   DISCUSSION...Instability is increasing across northeast Colorado and
   eastern Wyoming into the Nebraska Panhandle and southwest South
   Dakota. A dryline extends from near Cheyenne, WY and across across
   northeast Colorado where deeper cumulus have started to develop.
   Strong heating west of this dryline has resulted in a mostly
   uncapped environment. Northeast of this dryline, the environment
   remains capped with cooler temperatures, but greater low-level
   moisture streaming north. Additional thunderstorms are starting to
   develop across southwest South Dakota in the vicinity of a northward
   moving warm front. 

   Thunderstorms have already started to develop across the higher
   terrain in northeast Colorado. Expect these storms to strengthen
   through the afternoon as they encounter increasing instability with
   eastward extent. Additional storms may form along the dryline,
   particularly where convergence is maximized across southeast Wyoming
   and into Weld County, Colorado. Effective shear is around 35 to 40
   knots per regional VWPs which will support supercells. Large hail,
   some 2+ inches, will be the primary threat with some severe wind
   gusts also possible.

   ..Bentley/Smith.. 06/01/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   39280185 39040305 38920424 38980466 39610507 40130535
               40930520 42690503 43810499 44450398 44480286 44280176
               43210063 40680032 39630045 39280185 

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