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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1093

Mesoscale Discussion 1093
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1093
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0857 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

   Areas affected...Upper TX Coast into southwest LA

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 359...

   Valid 311357Z - 311530Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 359

   SUMMARY...An isolated damaging-wind threat could spread into parts
   of extreme southwest Louisiana later this morning.

   DISCUSSION...The northern portion of a long-lived QLCS is moving
   slowly eastward near the upper TX coast this morning, with the
   stronger portion of the QLCS currently moving offshore farther
   southwest. The 12Z LCH sounding depicted moderate MUCAPE, but also
   near-surface stability and only modest low-level flow. Somewhat
   warmer and more unstable conditions are noted downstream near the
   immediate coast, where some increasing cumulus has been noted. In
   areas where continued modest pre-storm heating can occur, some
   damaging-wind threat could persist through mid morning, though the
   environment is expected to remain only marginally favorable for
   organized convection. 

   With the short-term threat expected to remain relatively confined to
   near-coastal areas of southwest LA, new watch issuance is currently
   considered unlikely.

   ..Dean/Smith.. 05/31/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   30429457 30249367 30149269 29949250 29679252 29349289
               29279410 29329415 29449452 30429457 

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