Mesoscale Discussion 1093 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026 Areas affected...northeast Missouri...eastern Iowa...northwest Illinois Concerning...Tornado Watch 313... Valid 112007Z - 112200Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 313 continues. SUMMARY...A corridor of severe storm potential is now developing into southeast Iowa, northeast Missouri, and northwest Illinois. Tornadoes, particularly damaging winds, and hail will all be possible. DISCUSSION...Low-level moisture and instability have rapidly developed northeastward from MO into IA ahead of the cold front, with mid 80s over mid 70s F. Gusty southwest winds are also providing surface air mass recovery into eastern IA and western IL where outflow is modifying. Low-level shear is quite strong in this area, with favorable hodographs for supercells and tornadoes. The DVN VWP, although on the cool side of the boundary, indicates 0-1 km SRH around 500 m2/s2. However, values in excess of 200 m2/s2 exist south of the low and outflow boundary which is clearly sufficient for tornadoes. Radar shows storms already extending from the surface low in east-central IA into far northern MO along the cold front which continues to advance eastward. Storm structure is mixed, but favorable deep-layer shear over 50 kt will support further organization over the next few hours. Both supercells and severe bows will be possible. Strong tornado potential will depend on non-linear mode, and is likely to be maximized from the surface low eastward along the northward advancing outflow boundary. This includes into north-central IL later today as air mass recovery continues. ..Jewell.. 06/11/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX... LAT...LON 41519228 41779141 41799078 41709048 41569027 40918987 40428981 40078990 39909021 39699143 39659325 40039326 40539294 41519228 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-145 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
Source link