Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1073

   Mesoscale Discussion 1073
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1253 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

   Areas affected...TX South Plains

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 351...

   Valid 300553Z - 300800Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 351
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Slow-moving, but potentially long-lived supercell should
   persist across a portion of the Texas South Plains as it likely
   tracks east-southeast through the pre-dawn hours. A narrow swath of
   occasional significant severe wind and hail is possible.

   DISCUSSION...A slow-moving supercell centered on northeast Roosevelt
   County, NM appears to have finally be turning to the east-southeast
   from its initial south-southeast track. This storm has a history of
   reported very large hail to 2.5 inches at Cannon AFB last hour. West
   TX Mesonet obs confirm a plume of low to mid 60s surface dew points
   immediately ahead of this supercell across the TX South Plains. With
   larger buoyancy and a stronger low-level jet relative to last
   night's intense supercell that similarly tracked across the region,
   it is plausible that this supercell may become a long-lived one as
   it moves toward the I-27/US-87 corridor. A narrow swath of
   significant severe hail is possible early, with an increasing risk
   for significant severe wind as supercell bowing structures
   potentially develop.

   ..Grams/Thompson.. 05/30/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LUB...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   34340307 34280179 34030118 33430097 33090114 33050150
               33220249 33760317 34120328 34340307