Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1061

   Mesoscale Discussion 1061
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0833 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

   Areas affected...The Edwards Plateau

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 290133Z - 290300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few strong to severe thunderstorms will continue across
   the Edwards Plateau over the next 1-2 hours.

   DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms has developed near a
   localized surface convergence axis this evening. Easterly surface
   inflow persists across central and south Texas, which should
   continue to aid in updraft maintenance. The current mesoscale
   environment remains favorable for thunderstorm organization given
   55-60 kt of deep layer shear via SJT VAD profile. The current air
   mass is relatively buoyant as well. However, further east CINH
   increases into the Hill Country. Confidence is low regarding the
   evolution of this cluster, but any of the stronger updrafts may
   produce hail near 1-1.75" in diameter through nightfall.

   ..Barnes/Smith.. 05/29/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   29970048 30060051 30480055 30769988 30769931 30499895
               30269883 29439878 29209901 29389980 29700018 29970048