Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1019

   Mesoscale Discussion 1019
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0645 PM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026

   Areas affected...western North Dakota

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 285...

   Valid 072345Z - 080115Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 285
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe supercells along the cold front will pose a risk
   for hail, damaging winds and a tornado or two this evening.
   Eventually upscale growth into a line with a risk for significant
   damaging winds is possible.

   DISCUSSION...Several supercells have rapidly intensified along and
   behind the sagging cold front across northwestern ND. Richer
   low-level moisture (mid to upper 60s F surface dewpoints) along the
   cool side of the boundary is supporting large buoyancy amid strongly
   veering wind profiles. Hail (some greater than 2 inches) is likely
   with these initial supercells. Low-level moisture may also be
   sufficient for a couple of tornadoes given the strong low-level
   buoyancy and enhanced vertical vorticity along the front. 

   Eventually the convection emanating out of MT and SD, as well as the
   surging front will favor upscale growth into linear clusters. The
   strong buoyancy and vertical shear would support a risk for damaging
   winds, some of which could be significant.

   ..Lyons.. 06/07/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BIS...GGW...

   LAT...LON   46870272 46650335 46710402 47410406 48780317 49150231
               49020181 48660171 47970206 46870272 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN