Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1003

   Mesoscale Discussion 1003
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0936 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

   Areas affected...portions of southern Indiana and northern Kentucky

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 324...

   Valid 270236Z - 270330Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 324 continues.

   SUMMARY...A well-developed bow echo will approach the Louisville
   metro in the next hour. Significant damaging winds (75+ mph) are
   possible along with QLCS tornadoes.

   DISCUSSION...The ongoing MCS over portions of the lower OH Valley
   has continued to intensify this evening. The northern most segment
   of the line has shown indications of a surging rear-inflow jet
   across southwestern IN. Observed 70-80 kt velocities at 2-3km ARL on
   the KVWX VAD lend high confidence to significant damaging wind
   potential with the apex of this bow over the next 1-2 hours.
   Experimental WOFS guidance also lends high confidence to strong
   damaging wind potential with this feature. With an estimated forward
   speed of 45-50 kt, damaging winds (some 75+ mph) will approach the
   Louisville metro and southern IN within the next hour. QLCS
   tornadoes are also possible given large low-level ESRH of 300-400
   m2/s2.

   ..Lyons.. 05/27/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...

   LAT...LON   38458702 38808697 38868674 38848630 38868589 38848558
               38728537 38558531 38428531 38218529 37918555 37658590
               37648598 37618630 37638659 37678677 37748694 37928705
               38088703 38458702