Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Remnants of Agatha Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ41 KNHC 311443
TCDEP1

Remnants Of Agatha Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012022
1000 AM CDT Tue May 31 2022

The mountainous terrain of southern Mexico continues to take a 
toll on Agatha.  Although a fairly well-defined mid-level 
circulation is still evident in satellite imagery, the low-level 
center has dissipated over southern Mexico.  Therefore, this will 
be the final advisory on Agatha. The initial intensity has been 
lowered to 25 kt, and continued weakening should occur today.  The 
remnants are moving northeastward or 045/7 kt and this general 
motion should persist for the next 48 h or so. 

Deep convection, with heavy rainfall, extends across southeastern 
Mexico and Guatemala.  This moisture will spread eastward across 
the remainder of southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, 
Guatemala, and Belize during the next day or so.  During this 
time frame, numerical model guidance suggests that the remnants of 
Agatha will be absorbed within a larger cyclonic gyre over 
southeastern Mexico.  Development within the broad low could occur 
over the northwestern Caribbean Sea or southeastern Gulf of Mexico 
later this week.  Please see NHC's Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook 
for more details.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rains associated with remnants of Agatha will continue 
over portions of southern Mexico through tonight.  This will pose a 
threat of potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/1500Z 17.3N  94.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...REMNANTS OF AGATHA
 12H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown/Bucci



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