Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Wind Speed Probabilities


856 
FONT12 KNHC 272046
PWSAT2

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022022               
2100 UTC MON JUN 27 2022                                            

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO WAS LOCATED   
NEAR LATITUDE 8.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

GUANAJA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)

PUERTO CABEZAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  13(15)
PUERTO CABEZAS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

BLUEFIELDS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  17(18)
BLUEFIELDS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
BLUEFIELDS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)

SAN ANDRES     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)  20(31)
SAN ANDRES     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)
SAN ANDRES     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)

LIMON          34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)
LIMON          50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

COLON          34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)

PT GALLINAS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  24(24)   5(29)   X(29)
PT GALLINAS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
PT GALLINAS    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

CURACAO        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  23(24)   X(24)   X(24)
CURACAO        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

SAINT VINCENT  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

GRENADA        34  X   X( X)   8( 8)   6(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)

TRINIDADTOBAGO 34  X   X( X)  22(22)   2(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
TRINIDADTOBAGO 50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

PORT OF SPAIN  34  X   X( X)   9( 9)   3(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)

JUANGRIEGO     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  19(20)   1(21)   X(21)   X(21)
JUANGRIEGO     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    



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