Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Public Advisory


000
WTNT32 KNHC 281154
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022022
800 AM AST Tue Jun 28 2022

...DISTURBANCE HEADED FOR THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...
...LIKELY TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE ISLANDS LATER 
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.5N 56.5W
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM E OF TRINIDAD
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Trinidad and Tobago
* Grenada and its dependencies

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of Venezuela from Pedernales to Cumana, including Islas de
Margarita, Coche, and Cubagua
* Bonaire

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, the northern coast of
Venezuela, Curacao, Aruba, and the northeastern coast of Colombia
should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the poorly defined disturbance was
centered near latitude 9.5 North, longitude 56.5 West. The system is
moving toward the west near 23 mph (37 km/h). A westward or west-
northwestward motion is expected through Thursday.  On the forecast
track, the system will pass near or over portions of the southern
Windward Islands by tonight, and move over the southern Caribbean
Sea or near the northern coast of Venezuela on Wednesday and
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slight strengthening is forecast during the next few days if
the disturbance remains over water.

Conditions appear conducive for development if the disturbance
remains over water, and it will likely become a tropical storm near
the southern Windward Islands or while moving westward across the
southern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high ...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce
heavy rain across the southern Windward Islands and the northeastern
coast of Venezuela starting tonight into Wednesday.  The following
storm total rainfall amounts are expected:

Islands from Guadeloupe to St. Lucia: 1 to 3 inches.

St. Vincent, the Grenadines, and Barbados: 3 to 5 inches.

Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, and northeastern Venezuela: 4 to 6
inches.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
the southern Windward Islands tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area along the northeastern coast of Venezuela
and nearby islands tonight, and in Bonaire by Wednesday evening.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



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