Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Public Advisory


000
WTNT32 KNHC 292057
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Advisory Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022022
500 PM AST Wed Jun 29 2022

...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 69.0W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF CURACAO
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM ESE OF NTHRN TIP OF GUAJIRA PNSULA COLOMBIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Nicaragua has issued a Hurricane Watch for
the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua from the Nicaragua/Costa Rica
border northward to Laguna de Perlas, and a Tropical Storm Watch
from north of Laguna de Perlas to Sandy Bay Sirpi.

The government of Costa Rica has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
the Caribbean coast of Costa Rica from Limon northward to the
Nicaragua/Costa Rica border.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Nicaragua/Costa Rica border to Laguna de Perlas Nicaragua

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bonaire
* Curacao
* Aruba
* Coast of Venezuela from the Peninsula de Paraguana
westward to the Colombia/Venezuela border including the Gulf of
Venezuela
* Coast of Colombia from the Colombia/Venezuela border westward to
Santa Marta

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Limon Costa Rica northward to the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border
* North of Laguna de Perlas to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the northern coast of Venezuela and the
northern coast of Colombia should monitor the progress of this
system.

Interests elsewhere along the Caribbean coasts of Nicaragua
and Costa Rica should also monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 
11.6 North, longitude 69.0 West. The system is moving toward the 
west near 21 mph (33 km/h), and a fast westward or west- 
northwestward motion is expected through Friday.  On the forecast 
track, the system will pass near the southern Caribbean Sea and the 
northern coast of Venezuela tonight, near the Guajira Peninsula of 
Colombia early Thursday and over the southwestern Caribbean Sea 
later on Thursday and on Friday.  The system is expected to be near 
or over Nicaragua by late Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days while the 
disturbance remains over water.

Conditions appear conducive for development while the disturbance
remains over water, and it is expected become a tropical storm while
moving westward across the southern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce 
heavy rain across the ABC Islands to portions of northern Venezuela 
and northeast Colombia through Thursday morning, then across 
Nicaragua and Costa Rica by Friday. The following storm total 
rainfall amounts are expected:

North-Central Venezuela: 4 to 6 inches.

Aruba, Curacao and Bonaire to northwestern Venezuela and northern 
Colombia: 3 to 5 inches.

Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 3 to 7 inches, with isolated higher totals 
around 10 inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over the ABC Islands
during the next few hours.  Tropical storm conditions are expected
in the warning area along the northwestern coast of Venezuela and
along the coast of northeastern Colombia tonight and early Thursday.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area
in Nicaragua late Friday, and tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch areas in Nicaragua and Costa Rica by 
Friday afternoon or evening. 


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



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