000 WTNT32 KNHC 291143 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022 800 AM AST Wed Jun 29 2022 ...DISTURBANCE CONTINUES MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.4N 66.4W ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM ESE OF CURACAO ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM E OF NTHRN TIP OF GUAJIRA PNSULA COLOMBIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Islas de Margarita, Coche and Cubagua * Bonaire * Curacao * Aruba * Coast of Venezuela from the Peninsula de Paraguana westward to the Colombia/Venezuela border including the Gulf of Venezuela. * Coast of Colombia from the Colombia/Venezuela border westward to Santa Marta A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Coast of Venezuela from Pedernales to Cumana A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the northern coast of Venezuela and the northern coast of Colombia should monitor the progress of this system. Interests in the southwestern Caribbean Sea and along the Caribbean coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica should also monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 11.4 North, longitude 66.4 West. The system is moving toward the west near 30 mph (48 km/h), and a westward or west-northwestward motion is expected through Friday. On the forecast track, the system will pass near the southern Caribbean Sea and the northern coast of Venezuela today, near the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia early Thursday and over the southwestern Caribbean Sea on Friday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days while the disturbance remains over water. Conditions appear conducive for development while the disturbance remains over water, and it is expected become a tropical storm while moving westward across the southern Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce heavy rain across the Windward Islands and northeast Venezuela today and from the ABC Islands to portions of northwest Venezuela and northeast Colombia today through Thursday morning. The following storm total rainfall amounts are expected: Lesser Antilles from Guadeloupe to St. Lucia: 1 to 2 inches. St. Vincent, the Grenadines, and Barbados: 2 to 4 inches. Grenada, Trinidad, Tobago, and northeast Venezuela: 4 to 6 inches. Aruba, Curacao and Bonaire to northwestern Venezuela and northeastern Colombia: 3 to 5 inches. Localized flash flooding will be possible. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area over Islas Margarita and the adjacent islands through this morning, and over the ABC Islands by this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the northwestern coast of Venezuela and northeastern Colombia tonight and early Thursday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch