Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Forecast Advisory


000
WTNT22 KNHC 272045
TCMAT2

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022022
2100 UTC MON JUN 27 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR TRINIDAD...TOBAGO...AND GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO
* GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COAST OF
VENEZUELA...AND THE ABC ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR  8.6N  50.9W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR  8.6N  50.9W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR  8.4N  50.1W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z  9.3N  53.5W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 10.1N  57.3W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 10.8N  61.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 11.4N  65.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 11.8N  69.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE   0SE   0SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 12.1N  72.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...100NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 12.2N  79.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 12.3N  84.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF  8.6N  50.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 28/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH




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