Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Forecast Advisory


000
WTNT22 KNHC 290854
TCMAT2

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022022
0900 UTC WED JUN 29 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ISLAS DE MARGARITA...COCHE AND CUBAGUA
* BONAIRE
* CURACAO
* ARUBA
* COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM THE PENINSULA DE PARAGUANA
WESTWARD TO THE COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA BORDER INCLUDING THE GULF OF
VENEZUELA.
* COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM THE COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA
BORDER WESTWARD TO SANTA MARTA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES TO CUMANA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA AND THE
NORTHERN COAST OF COLOMBIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.  INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ALONG THE
CARIBBEAN COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA SHOULD ALSO MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N  65.4W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  26 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N  65.4W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.1N  64.3W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 11.7N  68.4W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 12.2N  72.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 12.2N  75.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 12.0N  79.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 11.8N  82.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  30SE  20SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 11.8N  85.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 12.3N  91.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 13.5N  97.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.3N  65.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 29/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE




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