Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Forecast Advisory


000
WTNT22 KNHC 280238
TCMAT2

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022022
0300 UTC TUE JUN 28 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF VENEZUELA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES TO CUMANA...INCLUDING ISLAS
DE MARGARITA...COCHE...AND CUBAGUA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR BONAIRE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO
* GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES TO CUMANA...INCLUDING ISLAS DE
MARGARITA...COCHE...AND CUBAGUA
* BONAIRE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COAST OF
VENEZUELA...CURACAO...ARUBA...AND THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
COLOMBIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR  8.7N  52.8W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR  8.7N  52.8W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR  8.5N  52.0W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z  9.3N  55.3W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 10.1N  59.7W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 10.8N  63.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 11.4N  67.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 11.8N  71.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 11.8N  75.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...100NE  40SE   0SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 11.5N  81.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 11.9N  87.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF  8.7N  52.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 28/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG




Source link