Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Forecast Advisory


000
WTNT22 KNHC 300843
TCMAT2

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022022
0900 UTC THU JUN 30 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF COLOMBIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE ISLAND OF SAN ANDRES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA BORDER TO LAGUNA DE PERLAS NICARAGUA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM THE PENINSULA DE PARAGUANA WESTWARD TO THE
COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA BORDER INCLUDING THE GULF OF VENEZUELA
* COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM THE COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA BORDER WESTWARD TO
SANTA MARTA
* SAN ANDRES COLOMBIA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LIMON COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO THE NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA BORDER
* NORTH OF LAGUNA DE PERLAS TO SANDY BAY SIRPI NICARAGUA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF COLOMBIA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG BOTH THE CARIBBEAN AND PACIFIC COASTS OF
NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N  72.4W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N  72.4W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N  71.4W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 12.0N  75.3W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 11.5N  79.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 11.1N  81.9W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  20SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 11.1N  84.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 11.1N  87.1W...OVER PACIFIC OCEAN
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 11.5N  89.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 12.8N  95.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 14.2N 100.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N  72.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 30/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG




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