Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Forecast Advisory


000
WTNT22 KNHC 300242
TCMAT2

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022022
0300 UTC THU JUN 30 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF CURACAO HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR CURACAO.

THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF ARUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR ARUBA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA BORDER TO LAGUNA DE PERLAS NICARAGUA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM THE PENINSULA DE PARAGUANA WESTWARD TO 
THE COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA BORDER INCLUDING THE GULF OF VENEZUELA
* COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM THE COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA BORDER WESTWARD TO
SANTA MARTA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LIMON COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO THE NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA BORDER
* NORTH OF LAGUNA DE PERLAS TO SANDY BAY SIRPI NICARAGUA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA AND THE
NORTHERN COAST OF COLOMBIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.  WATCHES OR WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE COLOMBIAN
ISLANDS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN ON THURSDAY.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE CARIBBEAN COASTS OF NICARAGUA
AND COSTA RICA SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N  70.6W AT 30/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE   0SE   0SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N  70.6W AT 30/0300Z
AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N  69.7W

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 12.1N  73.5W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 12.0N  77.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 11.7N  80.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 11.4N  83.7W...NEAR COAST OF NICARAGUA
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  30SE   0SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 11.3N  86.6W...OVER PACIFIC OCEAN
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 11.5N  88.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 12.5N  94.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 14.0N 100.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N  70.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 30/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




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