Atlantic Hurricane Feed

Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Public Advisory

Published Date and Time: 2024-09-08 22:31:36



000
WTNT31 KNHC 090231
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062024
1000 PM CDT Sun Sep 08 2024

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS...
...INCREASING RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ALONG THE LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS BY
MID-WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 94.7W
ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
ABOUT 550 MI...890 KM S OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for extreme southern Texas
from Port Mansfield southward to the Mouth of the Rio Grande.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barra del Tordo to the Mouth of the Rio Grande
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Hurricane, Storm Surge, and Tropical Storm Watches will likely be 
required for portions of the Louisiana and Upper Texas coast on 
Monday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 21.9 North, longitude 94.7 West. The system is moving
toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow northwestward
to northward motion is expected over the next day or so, followed
by a faster motion to the northeast beginning late Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move just offshore of
the northern Gulf Coast of Mexico through Tuesday, and approach the
Louisiana and Upper Texas coastline on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
The system is expected to become a tropical storm on Monday,
with more significant intensification forecast to occur on Tuesday.
The system is forecast to become a hurricane before it reaches the
northwestern U.S. Gulf Coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
west of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area along the northern coast of Mexico and extreme southern Texas
beginning Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Six is expected to bring storm 
total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches, 
from the coast of far northeast Mexico northward along portions of 
the Texas coast and into Louisiana through Thursday. This rainfall 
would lead to the risk of flash and urban flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero.

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible along the Mexico
coast within areas of onshore flow.

SURF:  Swells generated by this system are affecting portions of the
Gulf coast of Mexico and are expected to spread northwestward across
the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coastline through midweek.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



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