Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Potential Tropical Cyclone One Wind Speed Probabilities


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FONT11 KNHC 040238
PWSAT1

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012022               
0300 UTC SAT JUN 04 2022                                            

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE WAS LOCATED   
NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM         
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                     

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

COCOA BEACH FL 34  2   6( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

PATRICK AFB    34  2   5( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

FT PIERCE FL   34  9  18(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)

W PALM BEACH   34 23  14(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)

FT LAUDERDALE  34 34  11(45)   1(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)

MIAMI FL       34 28  20(48)   X(48)   X(48)   X(48)   X(48)   X(48)

HOMESTEAD ARB  34 31  16(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)

MARATHON FL    34 57   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)

KEY WEST FL    34 67   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)

NAPLES FL      34 61   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)
NAPLES FL      50  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

FT MYERS FL    34 35   2(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)

VENICE FL      34  6   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  21(21)   2(23)   1(24)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

GRAND BAHAMA   34  3  33(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)

NEW PROVIDENCE 34  1   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

HAVANA         34 49   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI                                               



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