Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Potential Tropical Cyclone One Wind Speed Probabilities


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FONT11 KNHC 031446
PWSAT1

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012022               
1500 UTC FRI JUN 03 2022                                            

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE WAS LOCATED   
NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM         
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                     

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

ORLANDO FL     34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   1( 1)  14(15)   2(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)

PATRICK AFB    34  X   1( 1)  14(15)   2(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
PATRICK AFB    50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

FT PIERCE FL   34  X   2( 2)  25(27)   4(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)
FT PIERCE FL   50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

W PALM BEACH   34  X   5( 5)  23(28)   2(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)

FT LAUDERDALE  34  X   6( 6)  15(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)

MIAMI FL       34  X   1( 1)  14(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)

HOMESTEAD ARB  34  X   1( 1)  11(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)

MARATHON FL    34  1  14(15)   3(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)

KEY WEST FL    34  1  20(21)   1(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)

NAPLES FL      34  X  37(37)  18(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)
NAPLES FL      50  X   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

FT MYERS FL    34  X   9( 9)  17(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)

VENICE FL      34  X  12(12)   5(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)

TAMPA FL       34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  16(22)   X(22)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)

GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   1( 1)  18(19)   4(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)

NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

CP SAN ANTONIO 34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

HAVANA         34  2   4( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    



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