Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Potential Tropical Cyclone One Public Advisory


000
WTNT31 KNHC 022053
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012022
400 PM CDT Thu Jun 02 2022

...HEAVY RAINFALL TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA, THE FLORIDA KEYS, 
AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH FLOODING 
POSSIBLE...

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 87.5W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM NNW OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 505 MI...810 KM SW OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the west coast of the
Florida peninsula south of the Middle of Longboat Key and for the
east coast of the Florida peninsula south of the Volusia/Brevard
County line, including Lake Okeechobee.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for all of the Florida Keys,
including the Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay.

The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, and
Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for..
* West coast of Florida south of the Middle of Longboat Key
* East coast of Florida south of the Volusia/Brevard County Line
* Florida Keys including the Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Bay
* Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana, Artemisa, Pinar
del Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible somewhere within the watch area within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula and the northwestern
Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
21.4 North, longitude 87.5 West. The system is moving toward the
north near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue 
tonight.  A turn toward the northeast is expected on Friday, and a 
faster motion toward the northeast is expected Friday night and 
Saturday.  On the forecast track, the system should move across the 
southeastern Gulf of Mexico through Friday night, and then move 
across the southern and central portions of the Florida Peninsula 
on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The system is expected to become a tropical depression on Friday 
and a tropical storm late Friday or Friday night.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce
heavy rains over the eastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, the
Cayman Islands and western Cuba through Friday.  Heavy rains will
begin to affect South Florida and the Keys Friday and continue
through Saturday. The following storm total rainfall amounts are 
currently expected:

Eastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and the Cayman Islands: 2
to 4 inches, with isolated maximum of 6 inches.

Western Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum of 14 inches.
This rain may cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

South Florida including the Keys:  4 to 8 inches with maximum totals
of 12 inches.  This rain may produce considerable flash and urban
flooding especially across the urban corridors.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area in Cuba on Friday, and in the watch area in Florida by Friday 
night or Saturday morning.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of storm surge and the tide will 
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Marco Island, FL to Card Sound Bridge...1-3 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Marco Island, Florida...1-2 ft
Charlotte Harbor...1-2 ft
Florida Keys and Dry Tortugas...1-2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge 
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For 
information specific to your area, please see products issued by 
your local National Weather Service forecast office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven



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