Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Potential Tropical Cyclone One Public Advisory


545 
WTNT31 KNHC 030553
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012022
100 AM CDT Fri Jun 03 2022

...HEAVY RAINS COULD PRODUCE FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING ACROSS 
PORTIONS OF CUBA, THE FLORIDA KEYS, AND SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AND ON 
SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 86.9W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM N OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 450 MI...730 KM SW OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 040 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Florida Keys including the Dry Tortugas 
* Florida Bay 
* West coast of Florida south of Englewood to Card Sound Bridge

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida south of the Middle of Longboat Key to
Englewood
* East coast of Florida south of the Volusia/Brevard County Line to
Card Sound Bridge
* Lake Okeechobee
* Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana, Artemisa, Pinar
del Rio, and the Isle of Youth
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible somewhere within the watch area within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States, 
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor 
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast 
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the 
United States, please monitor products issued by your national 
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
21.9 North, longitude 86.9 West.  The system is moving toward the
northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h).  A northeastward motion at a 
faster forward speed is expected later today and on Saturday.  On 
the forecast track, the system should move across the southeastern 
Gulf of Mexico through Saturday morning, across the southern and 
central portions of the Florida Peninsula on Saturday, and then over 
the southwestern Atlantic north of the northwestern Bahamas Saturday 
night and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. The system is expected to become a tropical depression today 
and a tropical storm by this evening or tonight. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce
heavy rains over the eastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, the
Cayman Islands and western Cuba through today.  Heavy rains will
begin to affect South Florida and the Keys beginning today and
continuing through Saturday. The following storm total rainfall
amounts are currently expected:

Eastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and the Cayman Islands: 2
to 4 inches, with isolated maxima of 6 inches.

Western Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with isolated maxima of 14 inches.
This rain may cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

South Florida including the Keys:  4 to 8 inches with maxima of 12
inches.  This rain may produce considerable flash and urban
flooding.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the 
warning area in Florida tonight and early Saturday.  Tropical storm 
conditions are possible in the watch area in Cuba today and are 
possible in the watch area in Florida and the northwestern Bahamas 
Saturday and Saturday night.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising 
waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the 
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if 
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Marco Island, FL to Card Sound Bridge...1-3 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Marco Island, FL...1-2 ft
Charlotte Harbor...1-2 ft
Florida Keys and Dry Tortugas...1-2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

TORNADOES:  Isolated tornadoes are possible over South Florida
beginning this evening and continuing through Saturday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg




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