Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Potential Tropical Cyclone One Public Advisory


000
WTNT31 KNHC 030246
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012022
1000 PM CDT Thu Jun 02 2022

...HEAVY RAINFALL TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA, THE FLORIDA KEYS,
AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH FLOODING
POSSIBLE...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 87.4W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM NNW OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM SW OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for all of the Florida
Keys, including the Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay, and for the west
coast of Florida south of Englewood.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for:
* Florida Keys including the Dry Tortugas
* Florida Bay
* West coast of Florida south of Englewood to Card Sound Bridge

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for..
* West coast of Florida from south of the Middle of Longboat Key to
Englewood
* East coast of Florida south of the Volusia/Brevard County Line to 
Card Sound Bridge
* Lake Okeechobee
* Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana, Artemisa, Pinar
del Rio, and the Isle of Youth
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible somewhere within the watch area within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near 
latitude 21.8 North, longitude 87.4 West. The system is moving 
toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h).  A turn toward the northeast 
is expected tonight, and a faster motion toward the northeast is 
expected Friday and Saturday.  On the forecast track, the system 
should move across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico through Friday 
night, and then move across the southern and central portions of the 
Florida Peninsula on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher 
gusts. The system is expected to become a tropical depression on 
Friday and a tropical storm by late Friday or Friday night.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce 
heavy rains over the eastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, the 
Cayman Islands and western Cuba through Friday.  Heavy rains will 
begin to affect South Florida and the Keys beginning Friday and 
continuing through Saturday. The following storm total rainfall 
amounts are currently expected:

Eastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and the Cayman Islands: 2 
to 4 inches, with isolated maxima of 6 inches.

Western Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with isolated maxima of 14 inches.  
This rain may cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

South Florida including the Keys:  4 to 8 inches with maxima of 12 
inches.  This rain may produce considerable flash and urban 
flooding.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area 
in Florida Friday night or early Saturday.  Tropical storm 
conditions are possible in the watch area in Cuba on Friday and 
are possible in the watch area in Florida and the northwestern 
Bahamas Friday night and Saturday.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Marco Island, FL to Card Sound Bridge...1-3 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Marco Island, FL...1-2 ft
Charlotte Harbor...1-2 ft
Florida Keys and Dry Tortugas...1-2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

TORNADOES:  Isolated tornadoes are possible over south Florida 
beginning Friday evening through Saturday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto/Cangialosi



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