Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Potential Tropical Cyclone One Public Advisory


000
WTNT31 KNHC 042354
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012022
800 PM EDT Sat Jun 04 2022

...FLOODING RAINS AND STRONG WINDS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 78.9W
ABOUT 105 MI...185 KM NE OF FORT PIERCE FLORIDA
ABOUT 885 MI...1425 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 6 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible somewhere within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
28.3 North, longitude 78.9 West. The system is moving toward the
northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion is expected
to continue through tonight.  A turn toward the east-northeast with
an additional increase in forward speed is expected on Sunday,
followed by a turn toward the east Monday night. On the forecast
track, the disturbance is expected to move farther away from the 
east coast of Florida and over the southwestern Atlantic north
of the Bahamas tonight, and move near or to the north of Bermuda on
Monday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical or 
subtropical storm tonight or Sunday, and some strengthening is 
possible through Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days... high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 210 miles (335 km)
to the east of the center.  A weather station at Settlement Point on
Grand Bahama Island recently reported a wind gust of 36 mph (57 
km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface 
observations is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will diminish across South Florida and the
Keys through this evening. Heavy rain will continue across the
northwestern Bahamas tonight before diminishing by early Sunday.
Heavy rain may begin to impact Bermuda Sunday night into Monday.

The following storm totals are expected:

South Florida: 6 to 10 inches with isolated maxima of 15 inches.
Urban flooding is expected to continue.

Florida Keys: 4 to 8 inches with isolated maxima of 10 inches. This
rain may produce flash and urban flooding.

Northwestern Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches with maxima of 12 inches. This
rain may produce flash and urban flooding.

Bermuda: 1 to 3 inches or 25 to 75 mm.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the northwestern
Bahamas for the next few hours.  Wind gusts to tropical-storm
force are possible in squalls over portions of the east coast of
the central and southern Florida Peninsula for the next couple of 
hours. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda on Monday.

STORM SURGE:  Storm surge could raise water levels by as much 1- 3
ft above normal tide levels in the extreme northwestern Bahamas.

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



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